Category: Modeling

This is my intro to the category.

Findings and reports: February 2023

Image of San Juan Islands from the Salish Sea Model
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Salish Sea Model provides insights on circulation and residence times The amount of time water circulates and “resides” in Puget Sound is of intense interest to regulators and emergency response officials who want to understand how quickly wastewater is flushed out of Puget Sound and into the ocean. A paper in the journal Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science reports that contrary to expectation, flushing of deeper waters may take longer in wintertime in large fjord-like basins such as Hood Canal. A new, higher resolution version of the Salish Sea Model […]

The quest continues for a nutrient reduction plan

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The quest continues for a large-scale plan to reduce human sources of nitrogen and improve the health of Puget Sound. This article is part of the Puget Sound Institute’s effort to explore the technical uncertainties related to the science of Puget Sound water quality. The project, jointly funded by King County and PSI, includes online workshops and discussions, along with informational blogs and articles. By Christopher Dunagan Human sources of nitrogen in Puget Sound have been blamed for increasing the intensity of algae blooms, lowering oxygen to critical levels, and […]

A network of computer models is predicting the future of Puget Sound

Tacoma Narrows Bridge viewed from Gig Harbor side https://www.flickr.com/photos/tomcollinsphoto/47070840014/in/photostream/
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A new $4.8 million dollar project led by the Puget Sound Institute links together a series of computer models to explore future scenarios across the watershed. Some of Puget Sound’s biggest concerns hold the greatest uncertainties.  Will we have clean water? Can the ecosystem sustain species like endangered salmon? How can the region continue to grow and still maintain healthy habitats for wildlife and people? What, in other words, is the future of Puget Sound? No one can travel through time to answer these questions firsthand (science has its limits), […]

Six things that people should know about ecosystem modeling and virtual experiments

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The Puget Sound Institute is facilitating a series of online workshops and discussions to explore the technical uncertainties related to the science of Puget Sound water quality. As part of the project, we are publishing informational blogs and articles, including this look at how computer models are becoming increasingly important to our understanding of the natural world. The project is jointly sponsored by King County and the Puget Sound Institute. By Christopher Dunagan If you are planning a hike, picnic or other outdoor activity, it might be wise to take a look at the local […]

Upcoming workshops on tools to evaluate water quality and biological integrity 

An image of brackish water mixing in the Salish Sea as shown by the Salish Sea Model. Image courtesy of the Salish Sea Modeling Center.
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New event: More than 130 researchers, scientists, modelers, and other experts attended our first workshop in July on The Science of Puget Sound Water Quality. The discussion continues with two interrelated workshops focusing on scientific tools for evaluating marine conditions and species health. Join us:  September 29th from 8 – 10 AM PT for Tools to Evaluate Water Quality. Learn about tools and new analyses from monitoring and modeling that help us better understand water quality and potential eutrophication impacts. We will look in particular at increased access to spatial and temporal […]

PSI monthly roundup: July 2022

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VIEW THE FULLY FORMATTED NEWSLETTER in your browser Low-oxygen problems to be scrutinized in talks about research, modeling efforts   For decades, researchers have been advancing their understanding of what causes the harmful and sometimes deadly low-oxygen problems afflicting some areas of Puget Sound. A series of 10 workshops on the subject will begin Tuesday, July 26th, and continue into next year. The workshops, coordinated by the Puget Sound Institute, will build on previous discussions, such as the Washington Department of Ecology’s Nutrient Forum and a forthcoming Marine Water Quality Implementation Strategy that […]

Low-oxygen problems to be scrutinized in talks about research, modeling efforts

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By Christopher Dunagan For decades, researchers have been advancing their understanding of what causes the harmful and sometimes deadly low-oxygen problems afflicting some areas of Puget Sound. Computer models have been developed to replicate conditions and point the way to possible solutions. Experts generally agree that excess nitrogen flowing into Puget Sound contributes to the low-oxygen conditions. What is needed now, some argue, is a stronger regionwide consensus around solutions to the problem. That could mean coming to terms with research findings, understanding the strengths and weaknesses of the models, […]

Series of workshops will advance understanding of nutrients in Puget Sound

Water quality monitoring and computer models are being used to address scientific questions surrounding nutrient management. Left photo. Right photo.
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Our region is navigating complex and challenging decisions on how best to manage nitrogen, dissolved oxygen, and the potential impacts of eutrophication on the key habitats and species of the Salish Sea. Over the next year, the Puget Sound Institute is sponsoring a series of scientific workshops to help address technical uncertainties and to advance modeling tools to assist decision-making related to nutrient pollution and broader water quality challenges. Supported by King County and municipalities in the Puget Sound Clean Water Alliance, we are collaborating to: Facilitate 10 scientific workshops with […]

Salmon experts predict more wild coho but fewer Chinook in Puget Sound this year

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Greater numbers of wild coho salmon are expected to return to Puget Sound later this year, according to forecasts released last week, but threatened Puget Sound Chinook stocks are likely to see another decline. The 2021 salmon forecasts were announced Friday during an online video conference with sport and commercial fishers and other interested people (TVW telecast). The annual meeting serves to launch negotiations that, when completed in April, will prescribe fishing seasons for the coming summer and fall. Protecting so-called “weak stocks” from fishing pressure continues to be a […]

New sewage-treatment permit would be a step to curbing nitrogen in Puget Sound

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In an effort to stem the flow of excess nitrogen into Puget Sound, Washington Department of Ecology has proposed a new type of permit for some 60 sewage-treatment plants operating throughout the region. The flexible permit, called the Puget Sound Nutrient General Permit, aims to hold nitrogen releases close to or below their current levels at most of the treatment plants while offering plant operators options for how to meet those goals. It’s a temporary solution, because the long-term goal is to make significant cuts in the total amount of […]

PSI launches Salish Sea Modeling Center

Maps generated from the Salish Sea Model showing surface layer transport in the Northwest Straits (left) and sea surface salinity (right). Images: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
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The Puget Sound Institute is launching a new program that will use supercomputers to advance ecosystem recovery of the Salish Sea. The Salish Sea Modeling Center will allow scientists from around the region to access sophisticated computer models to predict changes in the ecosystem. Work at the center will tackle vexing environmental problems such as the changing chemistry of the Salish Sea and other mysteries puzzling scientists. The center is supported by the Environmental Protection Agency and other regional water quality partners. If you want to understand where fish or […]

Warm-water ‘blobs’ significantly diminish salmon, other fish populations, study says

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It’s no secret that salmon and other Northwest fish populations are expected to shrink as a result of a warming Pacific Ocean. But a new study suggests that the resulting decline in commercial fishing by 2050 could be twice as great as previously estimated by climate scientists. The higher estimates of population declines were calculated by researchers at the University of British Columbia, who took into account occasional “marine heat waves” that can play havoc with the ecosystem. A recent example is the warm-water event known as the “blob,” which […]